Bitcoin Cycle Altitude

This chart plots the Cycle Altitude across all of Bitcoin's history. Cycle Altitude is the single headline number that fuses the Risk and Time lenses, and seeing its full track record is what lets you read today's altitude against past tops and bottoms.

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About This Chart

In one sentence

It plots Cycle Altitude, which follows whichever of Risk or Time is more extreme, across every past cycle.

What it measures

Cycle Altitude is the terminal's headline number, the two lenses fused into a single 0-100 read: how stretched Bitcoin looks (Risk) and how far through the cycle clock it is (Time).

Plotted across history, it shows the full arc of each cycle in a single line, from the lows at each bottom to the highs at each top.

How to read it

Altitude follows whichever lens is currently more extreme, not an average of the two: the higher of Risk and Time on the way up, the lower of the two on the way down. Only one lens has to reach an extreme to move the reading.

Time advances every single day; Risk does not always reach an extreme. So when Risk stays quiet, Time acts as the fallback, driving the reading toward the top or bottom on the calendar alone. That trades precision for a better chance of being directionally right.

Because Altitude is a summary, when it surprises you, the Risk and Time histories show which lens is driving it.

The history is drawn from what was known on each day, not from hindsight, so it holds at an extreme through the three weeks a turn takes to confirm and steps when the new cycle is marked. The step can be large: Altitude follows the lower of the two lenses on the way down and the higher on the way up, so marking a bottom switches which lens it reads in a single day.

Limitations

Fusing two lenses into one number is a convenience that hides which one is driving the reading. When Risk and Time diverge, the single altitude figure cannot show it; the two underlying histories can.

It inherits the limits of both lenses, including that all of it is calibrated on a short history of completed cycles.

Fact Sheet

How it is calculated

The daily Cycle Altitude (0-100) over all of Bitcoin's history. Altitude fuses the two lenses: it follows the higher of Risk and Time as a cycle climbs, and the lower of them as it falls.

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