The Puell Multiple reads the cycle from the miners' side. Miners have bills to pay in dollars and get paid in Bitcoin, so they sell regardless of how they feel about the market. Comparing what their daily output is worth against its own yearly average gauges how much of that forced selling is happening.
Compares what miners earn today against what they have earned on average over the past year.
Almost every other indicator here reads demand. This one reads supply. Hardware is financed and electricity is billed monthly, and neither stops when the price falls, so miners are structurally compelled sellers in a way ordinary holders are not.
Comparing today's mining revenue against its own trailing year cancels out both the price level and the halving schedule. What is left is a single question: is mining unusually rich right now, or unusually lean.
A value of 1 means miners are earning exactly their average from the past year. Above 1, each day's output is worth more than that average, which happens after a fast price rise. Below 1, mining income has shrunk against its own recent history.
Two different forces move it. Price moves it smoothly. A halving moves it all at once, cutting new supply in half overnight while the year-long average takes a full year to catch up.
In Bitcoin's earliest completed cycle, mining income's high reading came within days of the final price peak, comfortably above the high-risk edge shown above. In the cycles since, the high has arrived many months before the market's actual top and has fallen short of that edge. Low readings have been more consistent, appearing in the months around major cycle lows, when mining income had fallen far below its own yearly average.
The peak reading has declined from one cycle to the next, which matters for how the upper threshold should be read.
The upper threshold is the weak point. Peak readings have compressed with each cycle, and analysts tracking that trend project values below the high-risk edge shown here for the next peak. If the compression continues, the upper threshold may not be reached again even at a genuine top. The lower edge has held up better.
The indicator counts only newly created Bitcoin, not transaction fees. Every halving cuts new supply in half while fees remain, so the slice of miner income this captures keeps shrinking.
It also assumes miners sell what they mine. Miners who hold reserves, sell forward, or borrow against their Bitcoin break the link between what they earn and what they put on the market.
Daily value of newly mined Bitcoin ÷ its own 365-day average