Pi Cycle Top

It compares a medium-length average of price against a longer one that has been doubled. Normally the shorter average sits well below the doubled longer one. Closing that gap takes a rise fast enough and sustained enough to drag the short average all the way up to cross it, something only a strong, sustained rally produces.

The name comes from a coincidence: 350 divided by 111 is 3.153, about as close to pi as you can get dividing 350 by a whole number. It carries no analytical meaning.

The chart plots both lines directly. The signal is the shorter average crossing above the doubled longer one, marked on the chart wherever it has happened. Normally the two lines sit well apart, which is why a crossing is rare and notable.

Because it only looks in one direction, it carries a high-risk edge and no low-risk edge, and it counts toward the Risk score only while the market is rising.

In the network's earliest cycles, the crossing landed close to the top. That reliability has not held up: one later crossing arrived many months before its cycle's actual peak rather than beside it, and the most recent completed cycle produced no crossing near its top at all.

The indicator has already missed. It produced no signal near the most recent major cycle peak, so a crossing should not be read as something the indicator reliably delivers at every top. A reading that approaches the doubled average without crossing it may be just as informative as a crossing would have been.

The sample is also tiny. An indicator fitted to a handful of peaks, some of which it has already missed, is partly describing the data it was built from, and the numbers 111 and 350 were chosen partly because they produce something close to pi.

It was built during Bitcoin's early growth phase. Spot ETFs, institutional custody, and far deeper derivatives markets have changed how cycles resolve, which is a plausible reason its more recent misses look different from its early hits.