Bitcoin Risk Score

Risk distills eight on-chain and technical indicators into one number from 0 to 100. Low means Bitcoin looks cheap against its history; high means it looks stretched. This chart draws that number across every cycle at once.

Shaded target zones mark the historically low and high ends of the range, so you can see at a glance how far the current reading is from either edge.

Each past cycle low pulls the line toward the bottom of the range, and each past peak pushes it toward the top. The value of seeing the whole history is context: a reading of 60 means little on its own, but a lot once you can see it against where the line has been at previous turning points.

Risk is only one of the two lenses. It says nothing about how far through a cycle we are in time; that is what the Time lens is for.

Risk is an unweighted average of a three-tier grade per indicator (below, between, or above its buy/sell targets), not of the indicators' raw values, over eight indicators in a bull leg and seven in a bear leg, since Pi Cycle is sell-only. Collapsing each reading to one of three tiers before averaging inherits every weakness the indicators carry, discards how far past a target a reading sits, and smooths over the fact that some of them have drifted in reliability from cycle to cycle. A single number is easy to read but hides that spread.

Like all of these tools, it is calibrated on a handful of completed cycles, so the historical range it is measured against is thin.