Where Is Bitcoin in Its Market Cycle?

Bitcoin trades in multi-year bull and bear cycles anchored to the four-year halving rhythm. A cycle indicator estimates where price sits inside that cycle so you can tell a bottom from a top. Trade The Cycle distils ten on-chain and technical metrics into a single 0–100 reading instead of leaving you to overlay a dozen charts.

No tool can answer that for you, and Trade The Cycle is educational only, not investment advice. What it does show is whether on-chain valuation is historically low (an accumulation zone) or stretched (a distribution zone), and how far the cycle has progressed in time. You bring the decision; the charts bring the context.

Risk is a 0–100 valuation read distilled from ten metrics: Stock-to-Flow Deflection, the 2-Year MA Multiplier, the Support & Resistance Band, a Price Boundary band, the Power Law, MVRV Z-Score, the Puell Multiple, the RHODL Ratio, NUPL, and the Pi Cycle Top. Each metric is graded 0–100 by where it sits between its low and high targets over the trailing 30 days, and the score is their average. Low Risk lines up with cycle bottoms; high Risk lines up with cycle tops. Every formula and threshold is public on the methodology page.

Cycle Altitude fuses the two lenses, valuation (Risk) and cycle progress (Time), into one number. It tells you whether valuation is running ahead of the historical clock (running hot), in step with it (on schedule), or whether runway remains before the next extreme.

Trade The Cycle runs three independent timing indicators: peak-to-bottom, bottom-to-peak, and halving-to-peak. Each projects from the historical average length of that leg, then blends them into a projected top and bottom shown as a date range rather than a single guess. Analyze the charts to see the current projection.