2-Year MA Multiplier

Two years is long enough to cover most of a full Bitcoin cycle. That makes this average behave less like a trend line that chases price and more like a slow center of gravity that price orbits.

The indicator asks how far price has traveled from that center. The upper level is five times the average price, not a longer average. Same line, multiplied.

The chart shows three lines: price, the two-year average, and five times that average. Price below the lower line means Bitcoin is trading under what it has averaged for two years. Price at the upper line means it has reached five times that level.

Neither line forces price to do anything, and there are long stretches spent between them where this indicator says very little.

Price has traded below the two-year average during the late stages of major bear markets, in stretches lasting from weeks to several months.

Price reached the upper level within days of Bitcoin's earliest major cycle peak. It has not reached the upper level near either cycle peak since, coming in well short both times.

A two-year average lags by design. It weights a price from two years ago the same as yesterday's, so after a sharp move it keeps reading high or low for months on data that no longer describes the market.

The upper level is the softer of the two edges. Only Bitcoin's earliest major cycle peak has reached it, and as Bitcoin grows larger and less volatile, moves of that magnitude become less likely rather than more. A threshold calibrated on Bitcoin's earlier, wilder years may not be met again.

It also needs two full years of price history before it produces anything, so it says nothing about Bitcoin's earliest period.