Bitcoin Risk Indicators

The Bitcoin Risk score and its history, distilled from ten on-chain and technical metrics on transparent gauges.

Risk Scorevaluation score across every cycle • 0 = cheap, 100 = stretched

Risk • 10 Indicators

each indicator's current read since prior cycle start • striped band = target zone • orange band = cycle range, diamond = now

Stock-to-Flow$79K(low)Estimates a price for Bitcoin based only on how scarce it is, and shows how the real price compares.
$59K
$125K
target ≤ $264Kcycle $59K$125Ktarget ≥ $264K
days to halving603 days
2-Year MA Multiplier$79K(low)Brackets Bitcoin between its two-year average price and five times that average, and shows where price sits between them.
$59K
$125K
target ≤ $88Kcycle $59K$125Ktarget ≥ $438K
Support & Resistance Band$79K(high)Draws a narrow price zone that Bitcoin tends to bounce off during rallies and get turned away at during declines.
$59K
$125K
target ≤ $70Kcycle $59K$125Ktarget ≥ $70K
Price Boundary$79K(neutral)Sets a floor (Balanced Price) and a ceiling (Terminal Price) for Bitcoin, both derived from how long coins sit untouched before being spent.
$59K
$125K
target ≤ $39Kcycle $59K$125Ktarget ≥ $291K
Power Law$79K(neutral)Measures Bitcoin's price compared to the fair-value line of its long-run growth trend.
$59K
$125K
target ≤ $63Kcycle $59K$125Ktarget ≥ $149K
MVRV Z-Score0.84(neutral)Measures how far Bitcoin's price has run ahead of what its owners paid for it.
0.18
2.53
target ≤ -0.12cycle 0.182.53target ≥ 1.85
Puell Multiple0.94(neutral)Compares what miners earn today against what they have earned on average over the past year.
0.51
1.35
target ≤ 0.51cycle 0.511.35target ≥ 1.22
RHODL Ratio1,241(neutral)Compares the value held by the newest buyers against the value held by owners from one to two years ago.
615
5,656
target ≤ 330cycle 6155,656target ≥ 4,554
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)33%(neutral)Shows what fraction of Bitcoin's value is profit that owners are sitting on but have not sold.
9%
56%
target ≤ 4%cycle 9%56%target ≥ 55%
Pi Cycle Top0.41(neutral)Fires a single signal when Bitcoin's short-term average price rises to twice its long-term average, a signal that has landed close to some cycle peaks and missed others entirely.
0.38
0.57
cycle 0.380.57target ≥ 1.00