Bitcoin Risk Indicators

The Bitcoin Risk score and its history, distilled from ten on-chain and technical metrics on transparent gauges.

Risk is a single 0 to 100 valuation reading averaged from 10 independent indicators. Each one is graded by where it sits between its own low and high targets, so indicators measured in dollars, in ratios and in standard deviations can be averaged without one of them dominating by scale.

Risk ZonesWhere each indicator grades into the score
Open the full Risk Score chart

Each indicator is graded into one of three zones by its extreme over the last 30 days: past its low target, between its targets, or past its high target. Risk is the average of the 9 grades counted today.

Risk ScoreEvery Risk indicator combined into one 0 to 100 valuation reading. Lower is cheap against history, higher is stretched.

Risk • 10 Indicators

The indicators averaged into the Risk score, each graded between its own low and high targets.

Stock-to-Flow•$83KEstimates a price for Bitcoin based only on how scarce it is, and shows how the real price compares.
$59K
$125K
≤ $257K≥ $257K
days to halving558 days
2-Year MA Multiplier•$83KBrackets Bitcoin between its two-year average price and five times that average, and shows where price sits between them.
$59K
$125K
≤ $89K≥ $445K
Weekly MA Band•$83KShows whether Bitcoin is trading below its 200-week moving average, above its 50-week moving average, or between the two.
$59K
$125K
≤ $67K≥ $77K
Price Boundary•$83KSets a floor (Balanced Price) and a ceiling (Terminal Price) for Bitcoin, both derived from how long coins sit untouched before being spent.
$59K
$125K
≤ $40K≥ $289K
Power Law•$83KMeasures Bitcoin's price compared to the fair-value line of its long-run growth trend.
$59K
$125K
≤ $65K≥ $155K
MVRV Z-Score•0.94Measures how far Bitcoin's price has run ahead of what its owners paid for it.
0.18
2.53
≤ -0.12≥ 1.85
Puell Multiple•1.07Compares what miners earn today against what they have earned on average over the past year.
0.51
1.35
≤ 0.51≥ 1.22
RHODL Ratio•1,179Compares the value held by the newest buyers against the value held by owners from one to two years ago.
615
5,656
≤ 330≥ 4,554
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)•35%Shows what fraction of Bitcoin's value is profit that owners are sitting on but have not sold.
9%
56%
≤ 4%≥ 55%
Pi Cycle Top•0.46Fires a single signal when Bitcoin's short-term average price rises to twice its long-term average, a signal that has landed close to some cycle peaks and missed others entirely.
0.38
0.57
≥ 1.00
About This Dashboard

About the Risk dashboard

How 10 Indicators Become One Number

Each indicator carries a low target and a high target fitted to where it has sat at past cycle extremes. Grading is a question of position: where does today's value fall between those two edges, expressed as 0 to 100. That conversion is what makes the set averageable, because it strips out the units.

The score is the plain average of those grades. No indicator is weighted above another, and none is dropped for disagreeing. An indicator whose target could not be fitted on a given day is the one exception, and the gauge says so rather than substituting a value.

Why the Grade Uses a 30-Day Window

A grade reads the trailing 30 days rather than the single latest value. One day's print can be noise, and a score that jumped on noise would report a valuation change that never happened.

The same window is what lets a gauge latch. An indicator that has reached its target inside the window stays marked as having reached it, so a brief touch of an edge is not erased by the next day's pullback. The latch is one-sided by design: it tracks whichever extreme the current leg is running toward.

Reading the Gauges

Every gauge plots the same four things: the current reading, the low and high targets, and the range this cycle has covered so far. Nothing is hidden behind a composite. The point of showing all of them is that disagreement between indicators is information, and an average alone would conceal it.

Four of the indicators are read in dollars rather than in their own ratio, because a dollar level is what appears on their chart. Each indicator's own page carries its formula, how it behaves at cycle extremes, and what it cannot tell you.