Bitcoin Cycle Projections

As of Nov 6, 2026, the blended clocks place the next cycle top first. The projected top window runs May 2029 – Oct 2029, and the projected bottom window runs Apr 2030 – Sep 2030. Both are arithmetic on elapsed days against the average length of the same leg in completed cycles, drawn from 3 independent clocks that do not share an anchor.

Each clock counts days since its own anchor and compares that count against how long the same leg ran in completed cycles. The output is a window, not a date, and the width of the window is the disagreement between them.

Projected Top (Avg)
Projected Bottom
What Each Clock Projects
Peak-to-Bottomestimated, anchored on a projection
Anchored on next peak, Aug 1, 2029, which is 999 days from now.Its completed legs have averaged 351 days to the next bottom, across 4 completed cycles.That places the bottom in the window Apr 2030 – Sep 2030.
Bottom-to-Peak
Anchored on last bottom, Jun 30, 2026, 129 days ago.Its completed legs have averaged 1063 days to the next top, across 3 completed cycles.That places the top in the window May 2029 – Jun 2029.
Halving-to-Peakestimated, anchored on a projection
Anchored on next halving, Apr 19, 2028, which is 530 days from now.Its completed legs have averaged 535 days to the next top, across 3 completed cycles.That places the top in the window Sep 2029 – Oct 2029.
About These Projections

What a Projection Here Is

A projection is an arithmetic statement about elapsed time, not a forecast of price. A clock takes its anchor date, counts the days since, and compares that count against the average length of the same leg across cycles that have finished. What comes out is a date window for when this leg would end if it ran to the historical average.

Nothing about that is a probability, and nothing about it is a price. A window is published rather than a date because the underlying averages disagree, and collapsing them to a single day would hide the one part of this worth reading.

Why the Sample Size Is Published

Each average is drawn only from completed cycles, and there have not been many. An average built on three legs is a different claim from one built on a single leg, so the count behind each clock sits beside its projection rather than being folded away.

A clock can also be estimated rather than measured. That happens when its anchor is itself a projection instead of a confirmed extreme, which means the window carries both its own uncertainty and the uncertainty of the clock it chains off. Those are marked.

What Would Change These Numbers

A confirmed pivot resets the clocks that anchor on it and adds one more completed leg to the averages, which moves every window at once. Until a pivot is confirmed, the windows drift forward day by day as elapsed time accumulates.

The record of every confirmed pivot, including how long each one took to confirm, is published separately.