Bitcoin Time Indicators

Three timing indicators and the blended projection for the next Bitcoin cycle top and bottom.

Time reads how far the current half-cycle has progressed, not how expensive it is. Three clocks run in parallel, each anchored to a different event and each measuring elapsed days against the average length of that leg across completed cycles.

Cycle ClockEach timing model's run toward its projected date
Open the full Time Score chart

Each arc runs from the turn a model counts from, on the left, to the date it projects, on the right, and fills as the days pass. A dashed arc belongs to a model whose starting turn has not happened yet.

Time ScoreHow far the current half-cycle has run on three timing models. Resets when a pivot is confirmed, not on the day of the extreme.
Projected Bottom
Projected Top (Avg)
Peak-to-Bottom•97%Tracks how far along we are in a typical Bitcoin bear market, measured from the last cycle peak.
Since 3 cycles • avg 379d368/379d • 11d left
ROI per Cycle
Cycle Progress
Bottom-to-Peak•0%EstimatedTracks how far along we are in a typical Bitcoin rally, measured from the last cycle low.
Starts 3 cycles • avg 1063d1,063d to target
ROI per Cycle
Cycle Progress
Halving-to-Peak•0%EstimatedTracks how far along we are between the last halving and where past cycles peaked afterward.
Starts 3 cycles • avg 535d535d to target
ROI per Cycle
Cycle Progress
About This Dashboard

About the Time dashboard

What a Clock Measures

A clock takes an anchor date, counts the days since it, and compares that count against how long the same leg has run in completed cycles. The output is progress toward the next turn expressed 0 to 100, not a price and not a probability.

Because the average is drawn from completed cycles only, a clock says nothing about a leg it has never seen finish. The number of cycles behind each average is published on this dashboard, since an average of three is a different claim from an average of one.

Why Three of Them

The three clocks anchor to different events, so they fail differently. One runs from the last confirmed peak, one from the last confirmed bottom, and one from the halving. When a cycle stretches or compresses, they disagree, and the spread between them is a more honest statement than any single one.

One clock can also be estimated rather than measured, which happens when its anchor is a projection rather than a confirmed extreme. The dashboard marks that case, because a clock chained off another clock's output carries both of their errors.

What the Blend Produces

The three clocks are combined into a date range for the next top and the next bottom. A range, not a date. The width of that range is the disagreement between the clocks and is the part worth reading.

Each clock has its own page describing what it anchors to and where it has been early or late. The projections page states what the blend currently produces in plain text.