The Puell Multiple reads the cycle from the miners' side. Miners have bills to pay in dollars and get paid in Bitcoin, so they sell regardless of how they feel about the market. Comparing what their daily output is worth against its own yearly average gauges how much of that forced selling is happening.
Compares what miners earn today against what they have earned on average over the past year.
Almost every other indicator here reads demand. This one reads supply. Hardware is financed and electricity is billed monthly, and neither stops when the price falls, so miners are structurally compelled sellers in a way ordinary holders are not.
Comparing today's mining revenue against its own trailing year cancels out both the price level and the halving schedule. What is left is a single question: is mining unusually rich right now, or unusually lean.
A value of 1 means miners are earning exactly their average from the past year. Above 1, each day's output is worth more than that average, which happens after a fast price rise. Below 1, mining income has shrunk against its own recent history.
Two different forces move it. Price moves it smoothly. A halving moves it all at once, cutting new supply in half overnight while the year-long average takes a full year to catch up.
The target zones marked above the chart are fitted to where the multiple has sat at past cycle extremes, and are recalculated each time a cycle turns, which is why they step rather than run flat.
In Bitcoin's earliest completed cycle, mining income's high reading came within days of the final price peak. In the cycles since, the high has arrived many months before the market's actual top. Low readings have been more consistent, appearing in the months around major cycle lows, when mining income had fallen far below its own yearly average.
The peak reading has declined from one cycle to the next, each high coming in below the last.
The upper end is where the indicator asks the most of its calibration. Peak readings have compressed sharply with each cycle, so a threshold set on the early ones stops being reachable even at a genuine top. The high-risk target here is recalculated against that contraction as each cycle turns; the low end has been steadier and moves far less.
The indicator counts only newly created Bitcoin, not transaction fees. Every halving cuts new supply in half while fees remain, so the slice of miner income this captures keeps shrinking.
It also assumes miners sell what they mine. Miners who hold reserves, sell forward, or borrow against their Bitcoin break the link between what they earn and what they put on the market.
Daily value of newly mined Bitcoin ÷ its own 365-day average