This band is built from the 200-week and 50-week moving averages of Bitcoin's price. The 200-week has sat near every cycle low since 2015, and the 50-week is the most widely watched line between a bull market and a bear one, so together they show which regime price is in.
Shows whether Bitcoin is trading below its 200-week moving average, above its 50-week moving average, or between the two.
The 200-week average covers almost four years of weekly closes, which is roughly one full Bitcoin cycle. It moves slowly and has not fallen from one week to the next since it first had enough history, so it behaves like a long-run floor that price rarely returns to.
The 50-week average covers about one year. It follows price much more closely and is the line most often used to say whether Bitcoin is in a bull market or a bear market.
Both are plain averages of weekly closes. The current week counts at today's price until it closes, which is how weekly averages behave on a daily chart.
The chart shows price against both averages. Below the 200-week reads as low risk, above the 50-week reads as high risk, and anywhere between them reads as neutral.
The 50-week usually runs above the 200-week, but it fell below it for most of 2023 after the 2022 decline. In that stretch price could be under the 200-week and over the 50-week at once, and it reads as low risk, because the 200-week is the line this indicator is built around.
Weekly closes below the 200-week have come in four stretches: late summer 2015, one week in March 2020, mid 2022 through October 2023 with several breaks above it, and mid 2026. The 2015 and 2018 cycle lows traded at or briefly under the 200-week without a weekly close beneath it.
Price has spent most of every bull market above both averages. After the 2021 and 2025 peaks it fell back under the 50-week within about a month; after the 2017 peak it took five months.
The 200-week average needs almost four years of history before it exists, so this indicator says nothing before May 2014 and does not cover the 2011 or 2013 cycles.
Above the 50-week is a description of a bull market, not of a top. Price can sit in the high-risk zone for a year or more, so this indicator marks the regime rather than the turn.
Moving averages lag by design. Around a sharp move price can cross the 50-week several times in a few weeks without the regime having changed, as it did in late 2019 and early 2022.
Where price sits from the 200-week average to the 50-week average of weekly closes. At or below the 200-week is the low end, at or above the 50-week is the high end.
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For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.