Ultimate Risk Timeline

MVRV Z-Score, the Puell Multiple, the RHODL Ratio, and NUPL each have a low-risk edge and a high-risk edge, described on their own pages and recalculated each time a cycle turns. This chart ignores everything between them. A lane is filled on the dates its indicator sat at or past whichever of those two edges applied on that date, and empty on every other date.

The four are measured in different units, so their values cannot be compared side by side. Their timing can. Reducing each one to a single state per date is what lets all four share an axis, and it is why this chart answers when rather than how much.

Read down a column rather than along a lane. One filled lane means one indicator is at an edge, which happens often. Four filled the same color on the same date means the on-chain picture is one-sided. The bottom lane is that column count drawn as a single band, faint where one indicator is past an edge and solid where all four are, so the one-sided stretches can be found without scanning for them.

Green stretches run longer than red ones. That asymmetry is in the indicators rather than the drawing: an indicator sits near the floor of its range for long stretches of a bear market, while it clears the top of that range only briefly around a peak.

An edge is a line, and a line makes a close call look decisive. An indicator a hair short of its edge leaves its lane empty while one a hair past fills it solid, though the two readings are nearly the same. The values behind the lanes sit on each indicator's own page.

The lanes are not four independent confirmations. MVRV Z-Score and NUPL are two readings of the same gap between market cap and realized cap, and the RHODL Ratio is built on realized value too, just split by how long ago each coin moved. Only the Puell Multiple reads a different part of the market, the miners' side. Each edge is also calibrated on a handful of completed cycles.