Peak-to-Bottom

Declines have their own shape, and it is not a rally in reverse. Bitcoin's drawdowns have historically been fast at the start and slow at the end, spending a long stretch near the eventual low rather than hitting it and turning straight around.

The indicator captures that by recording the full path of each completed decline, then reading where the current one sits against them.

The output is a position within a typical decline. A high reading means the calendar is late in a typical bear market by historical standards.

While the market is rising there is no confirmed peak to start from, so this chains off the projected next top from the other two timing indicators. When that happens the page says so directly, because both the starting point and the path are then projections rather than measurements.

Declines from cycle peak to cycle low have reached roughly 80 percent or more, and the deepest have exceeded 90 percent.

Everything that limits the bottom-to-peak indicator applies here, and the small sample matters more: there are fewer completed declines in the record than rallies.

When this is working from a projected peak rather than a real one, its uncertainty includes the uncertainty in that projection. The page flags that state explicitly for exactly this reason.