Bitcoin Cycle Tops and Bottoms

December 2018 Bitcoin Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin bottomed at $3,185 on Dec 15, 2018. Cycle Altitude read 10 that day, from a Risk of 11 and a Time of 10. Altitude did not reach its extreme band until 2 days after the turn, on Dec 17, 2018. The detector committed to the pivot on Jan 9, 2019, 25 days after the extreme itself.

IndicatorReadingLow TargetHigh TargetGradeSaysTarget Reached
Stock-to-Flow$3,185$7,195$7,1950lowLow target
2-Year MA Multiplier$3,185$5,694$28,4680lowLow target
Support & Resistance Band$3,185$5,729$5,9260lowLow target
Price Boundary$3,185$3,523$22,8830lowLow target
Power Law$3,185$2,234$5,31950neutralNot reached
MVRV Z-Score-0.490.107.000lowLow target
Puell Multiple0.390.503.500lowLow target
RHODL Ratio40735022,00050neutralNot reached
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)-45%0%75%0lowLow target
Pi Cycle Top0.38--1.0050neutralNot reached

These per-indicator readings are a replay of the current engine over the record up to 2018-12-15. The three headline scores in the fact sheet come from the daily point-in-time replay, which used only what was knowable each day. The two are different measurements of the same date and can differ.

Fact Sheet
Extreme date
Dec 15, 2018
Price
$3,185
Cycle Altitude
10
Risk
11
Time
10
Extreme band entered
Dec 17, 2018 (-2 days before the turn)
Watch armed
Dec 26, 2018 (-11 days before the turn)
Confirmed
Jan 9, 2019 (25 days after the extreme)
Price when confirmed
$4,004
Confirmed by
Cycle Altitude in its extreme band
Leg searched
Dec 30, 2017 to Jan 9, 2019